IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian grain prices stable on high state purchases

Reuters

MOSCOW, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Russian grain prices were largely stable and some edged up last week after a 12-week decline on record high purchase volumes to the state intervention stocks, the Agriculture Ministry and analysts said on Monday.

"The Russian government has managed to cushion at home the world grain price decline tendency," the ministry said in a statement.

The government bought 521,000 tonnes of grain, including 192,000 tonnes of third-grade wheat, 157,000 tonnes of fourth-grade wheat and 135,000 tonnes of feed wheat last week.

The government has already bought some 2 million tonnes of grain, compared to 1.7 million tonnes during the previous round of purchase intervention tenders in 2005.

Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev has set a target of purchasing no less than 500,000 tonnes of grain per week, the ministry statement said.

The situation on the export market remained calm with domestic forward export prices fluctuating between $150 and $160 per tonne, FOB Novorossiisk, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said.

SovEcon agricultural analysts said exporters set bid prices for fourth-grade wheat at 3,500-4,200 roubles ($127.6-$153.2 per tonne including delivery to ports, with purchase volumes remaining rather low.

Exporters' bid prices for maize were in the range of 2,500-2,800 roubles per tonne CPT ports.

The stabilization and some strengthening of the domestic wheat and barley prices have widened the price difference between the export and intervention prices in the south of Russia, IKAR said.

It said for the cereal to be export competitive, domestic wheat prices have to decrease by $15-20 per tonne.

SovEcon believes the difference of 20-35 percent between the market and intervention prices for wheat may be levelled by either a decline in the intervention prices, or by an increase in the market prices.

Sovecon expects the increase to occur as a result of the traditional December rise in the activity of processors, who start building up stocks ahead of the New Year holidays.

SovEcon said third-grade milling wheat added 100 roubles per tonne last week, maize prices rose by 25-50 roubles, milling rye fell by 50 roubles, feed wheat by 50, while fourth-grade wheat and feed barley prices remained unchanged.

Grain exports exceeded 10 million tonnes since the start of the crop year in July, the Agriculture Ministry said.

SUNSEED PRICES RATHER STABLE, SUNOIL DOWN

Domestic sunseed prices remained quite stable, ranging between $212 and $230 per tonne, ex-works with the market being very thin due to lack of liquidity on the part of buyers and payment delays reaching three weeks or more," IKAR said.

SovEcon said average domestic sunseed offer prices edged up by some 50 roubles per tonne. Processors kept bid prices at 5,500-6,000 roubles per tonne. IKAR said domestic crude sunoil price declined to $621-658, while export price varied between $690 and $710 per tonne.

SovEcon said crude sunoli lost some 750 roubles last week, but it expects it to stabilise eventually with rising exports.

Last week, domestic white sugar price has risen slightly to $525 per tonne from $511 in Krasnodar, IKAR said. IKAR has increased its 2008 beet sugar output estimate to 3.28 million tonnes, up 4.6 percent year-on-year.

29.12.08

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