http://ikar.ru/en/ IKAR. News, 27.04.2026 en http://ikar.ru/img/logo_en.png http://ikar.ru/en/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3967/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3967/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, March 30 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices remained stable last week, with no new obvious drivers for price movement, analysts said as they made further upward revisions to estimates for March exports. MOSCOW, March 30 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices remained stable last week, with no new obvious drivers for price movement, analysts said as they made further upward revisions to estimates for March exports.The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in May was $238 a metric ton at the end of last week, unchanged from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.Sovecon also expects prices to remain unchanged for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content, at $239 to $242 a ton FOB.The agency raised its estimate of wheat exports in March to 4.5 million tons from last week's projection of 4.2 million tons. Sovecon also increased its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.1 million tons to 46.5 million tons and its 2026/27 forecast by 2.1 million to 43.8 million tons.IKAR estimated March wheat exports at 4.6 million tons, up from last week's projection of between 4.4 million and 4.6 million tons.Rail carrier Rusagrotrans has raised its estimate for this month to between 4.6 million and 4.7 million tons, up from the 4.3 million to 4.5 million tons forecast a week earlier. About 3.6 million tons of wheat was exported over March 1-23.The weather continues to be favourable for the new harvest, analysts say.Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said last week that 97% of winter crops are in good or satisfactory condition. Spring fieldwork has already begun in 23 of the country's regions. Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:Product:Most recent data:Change from a week earlier- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)14,200 rbls/t-150 rbls/t- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)36,550 rbls/t+250 rbls/t- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)95,600 rbls/t+250 rbls/t- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)29,000 rbls/t0 rbls/t- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)$1,305+$10/t- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)$715.94/t+$22.87/t Mon, 30 Mar 2026 16:19:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3965/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3965/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, March 23 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices remained at the levels reached during the three-week rally triggered by the Iranian crisis, and analysts have raised their forecasts for March shipments amid an acceleration in exports. MOSCOW, March 23 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices remained at the levels reached during the three-week rally triggered by the Iranian crisis, and analysts have raised their forecasts for March shipments amid an acceleration in exports.The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late April and early May was $238 a metric ton at the end of last week, unchanged from the previous week, Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said.Sovecon estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein at $239 to $242 a ton FOB, compared with $238 to $240 the previous week.Sovecon has raised its estimate of wheat exports in March to 4.2 million tons from 3.8 million tons last week, and IKAR to between 4.4 million and 4.6 million tons from 4.1 million to 4.4 million tons.Rail carrier Rusagrotrans has estimated wheat exports this month at 4.3-4.5 million tons, which could be the second-best result since March 2023. According to its figures, around 2.1 million tons of wheat were exported from 1 to 16 March.The sowing of early winter crops is gathering pace. Analysts believe that the weather is currently favourable for crops."It isn't causing any concern at the moment, although, of course, things could change very easily," said Rylko.Sovecon has raised its forecast for Russia's 2026 wheat crop by 1.7 million metric tons to 87.6 million metric tons last week, citing generally favourable weather. Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:Product:Most recent data:Change from a week earlier- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)14,350 rbls/t+150 rbls/t- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)36,300 rbls/t-275 rbls/t- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)95,350 rbls/t0 rbls/t- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)29,000 rbls/t-400 rbls/t- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)$1,295-$10/t- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)$693.07/t-$2.52/t Mon, 23 Mar 2026 11:18:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3964/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3964/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, March 16 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose to their highest since August last week, tracking rising global prices and as shipments from ports picked up pace as the weather improved, analysts said. MOSCOW, March 16 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose to their highest since August last week, tracking rising global prices and as shipments from ports picked up pace as the weather improved, analysts said.The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in April was $238 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $2.0 from a week earlier, Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said.Sovecon estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein at $238 to $240 a ton FOB, compared with $234 to $236 the previous week."Russian FOB prices hit their highest since August 2025, when they reached $240 a metric ton. The rise was supported by stronger global futures and firmer export quotes from key competitors. Demand looks strong and shipment pace is accelerating," Andrey Sizov, the head of Sovecon said.Sovecon estimated wheat exports at 3.8 million tons in March, while IKAR has raised its estimate to between 4.1 million and 4.4 million tons, up from over 3.5 million tons previously.Rail carrier Rusagrotrans has estimated wheat exports this month at 3.7 million tons. According to its figures, around 1.2 million tons of wheat were exported during the first ten days of March.Spring fieldwork has begun in 14 regions of the country, and the pace is ahead of last year’s, said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev last week.The weather remains largely favourable for the new crop, Sovecon analysts noted. Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:Product:Most recent data:Change from a week earlier- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)14,200 rbls/t+150 rbls/t- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)36,575 rbls/t+200 rbls/t- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)95,350 rbls/t+250 rbls/t- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)29,400 rbls/t0 rbls/t- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)$1,305$0/t- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)$695.59/t+$4.96/t Mon, 16 Mar 2026 11:15:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3963/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3963/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, March 10 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose last week but not as much as international exchange contracts did after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran due to higher freight costs and insurance premiums, analysts said. MOSCOW, March 10 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose last week but not as much as international exchange contracts did after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran due to higher freight costs and insurance premiums, analysts said.The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in April was $236 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $2.50 from a week earlier, Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said."The FOB price is rising, but the price is rising more sharply in the ports of destination. It is rising less here, as the increase in freight and insurance premiums is also eating into it," Rylko said.SovEcon estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein at $234 to $236 a ton FOB, compared with $233 to $236 the previous week. The agency lowered its estimate for wheat exports in February by 0.1 million ton to 2.9 million tons.IKAR estimates wheat exports in March at over 3.5 million tons. Analysts said that the weather in ports has become more favourable for shipments.Rail carrier Rusagrotrans analysts said that in March exports could reach 3.6 million tons thanks to improved weather conditions in ports and accelerated shipments. As a result, by the end of July-March of the 2025/26 season, wheat exports will almost match the level of the previous 2024/25 season for the same period for the first time since July, reaching 36 million tons, compared with 36.3 million tonnes a year earlier.Southern regions of Russia began spring sowing last week. SovEcon analysts said that the weather remains favourable for winter crops. Other Russian data provided by SovEcon and IKAR:Product:Most recent data:Change from a week earlier- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)14,050 rbls/t+300 rbls/t- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)36,375 rbls/t+225 rbls/t- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)95,100 rbls/t+ 675 rbls/t- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)29,400 rbls/t+500 rbls/t- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)$690.63/t+$3.39/t Tue, 10 Mar 2026 11:13:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3966/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3966/ Agribusiness FAO presents key trends in global grain production and trade in Altai Krai (Russia’s breadbasket) FAO presents key trends in global grain production and trade in Altai Krai (Russia’s breadbasket) Winter Grain ConferenceOn 26–27 February, the 19th Winter Grain Conference took place in the city of Belokurikha, Altai Krai. The annual event supported by the Government of Altai Krai and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation was organized by the Union of Grain Processors of Altai, the ProZerno analytical company, and the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR).The forum participants focused on the key matters of industrial agriculture development, assessed the state of the winter crop area and the quality of last year’s wheat, and formulated baseline scenarios for developing export potential for the upcoming season. Moreover, experts discussed the forecasts for the growth rate of the Russian agricultural economy, the current configuration of the foreign trade balance and the development vectors of the global situation with grain.The situation in Russian regions located quite far from major ports was considered as a separate topic. High logistics costs and price fluctuations on global markets create serious obstacles for them. At the same time, participants noted that these territories could become growth drivers if their potential for developing new segments in the Asian, Middle Eastern, and African markets can be realized.When opening the conference, Sergei A. Mezhin, Minister of Agriculture of Altai Krai, spoke about the results of the agricultural year in the region. "In 2025, agricultural production increased by 13.7%. We exceeded the all-time high, with the grain and legume yield amounting to 6.6 million tonnes, allowing the region to maintain its fourth place in Russia. The region became an absolute leader in oilseed production, harvesting 3.4 million tonnes," the head of the ministry emphasized."We export 80% of the products outside the region: in 2025, grain shipments reached a record of 2.3 million tonnes, 991 thousand tonnes of which went for exports and over 1.3 million tonnes were sent to the regions of Russia. Exports of processed products are also growing steadily, reaching 4 million tonnes, which is 1.7 times higher than in 2021. China and Kazakhstan remain the region’s main trading partners," the Minister of Agriculture of Altai Krai summed up.Igor Shpakov, Senior Consultant at the FAO Moscow Office, presented the key findings of the Impact of Disasters on Agricultural Production Losses publication. "The total global agricultural losses from natural disasters in the period from 1991 to 2023 are estimated at about USD 3.26 trillion. On average, it means almost 100 billion dollars a year or 4% of annual global agricultural GDP," the expert highlighted. "Over the past three decades, disasters have caused the loss of 4.6 billion tonnes of cereals, 2.8 billion tonnes of fruits and vegetables, and 900 million tonnes of animal products."Photo: Winter Grain ConferenceAnalysing the regional distribution of losses, the FAO representative noted that Asia accounts for largest share of global losses, around 47%. "These high figures reflect, on the one hand, the huge scale of Asian agricultural production, and on the other hand, the still underdeveloped infrastructure that remains extremely vulnerable to such impacts," Igor Shpakov explained.Moving on to the analysis of grain balances, the expert noted the record global grain stocks reaching 936.3 million tonnes, which is 7.8% (or 67.6 million tonnes) higher than at the beginning of the season. "This is a record high that is enough for five months of continuous grain consumption by all countries. At the same time, the ratio of stocks of main grain exporters to their use will reach 22.3%, which is the highest figure since the early 1990s, indicating fully sufficient supply in the global market," the speaker stated.According to FAO forecasts, global grain trade will amount to 501 million tonnes, exceeding the level of the 2024–2025 season by 3.7% (or 17.6 million tonnes). "Wheat will become the main growth driver: a significant recovery in trade in this crop is expected after last year’s decline," Igor Shpakov noted. "Türkiye and China, which are resuming purchases, will be the key importers, along with Asian countries, which are demonstrating growing demand for food-grade wheat. Furthermore, large stocks and stable prices create favourable conditions for further expansion of trade flows."Commenting on the dynamics of world prices, the FAO representative said that in January 2026, the FAO Food Price Index averaged 123.9 points, down 0.4% from the previous month and 0.6% from its level in January 2025. "The decrease in the overall index was driven by falling dairy, meat and vegetable oil prices, while the sugar and cereal price indices showed moderate growth. In general, the FAO Food Price Index has been declining for five consecutive months, from September 2025 to January 2026, which is due to a remarkably bearish sentiment in the grain market," the expert elaborated.Photo: Winter Grain Conference"In our opinion, despite the negative trends, Russia will undoubtedly remain the world’s top wheat supplier in 2026, with a share of global exports of approximately 20%. However, with abundant harvests in competing countries, the prices will still be under high pressure. Seeing the rising supply, importers are in no hurry to stock up and purchase only as much as required to meet their current needs. Therefore, in foreign markets, Russia’s main export product – wheat – will compete with the increased capacities of the EU, Kazakhstan, and Argentina this season," the FAO representative summarized.Andrey Klepach, Chief Economist at the VEB.RF state development corporation, presented a forecast for the development of the Russian economy for 2026, outlining the key global trends and domestic challenges. "We are witnessing a fundamental change in the configuration of the global economy, with the centre of investment activity steadily shifting towards developing countries. While the current share of China in the global economy is 19%, the share of the EU is about 15%, and the one of India is 8%, by 2050, China’s share could reach 20–25%, and India’s share could amount to 16%, provided that there are no natural disasters," the VEB.RF representative predicted, emphasizing that these structural shifts will determine the development trajectory of global markets, including the raw materials and food ones.Moving on to the analysis of the domestic situation in Russia, Andrey Klepach focused on the currency exchange rate and budget risks. According to the expert, in the context of a potential key rate reduction and export volumes remaining moderate, the national currency may weaken: by the end of the year, the exchange rate is forecast at 87–89 roubles per US dollar. "According to our estimates, to accelerate economic growth in Russia, the national currency exchange rate needs to be lowered to 92–94 roubles," the economist added. "At the same time, meeting budget obligations will pose a serious challenge for the financial system, since there is a high risk of the budget deficit increasing to 7.3 trillion roubles in 2026."In conclusion, the VEB.RF chief economist focused on the prospects for personal incomes and the consumer market. "In 2026, we predict declining consumer demand dynamics, which will require businesses to find new models for working with the market and optimizing costs. At the same time, agriculture will retain a high adaptive potential, but its fulfilment will require targeted support measures and the removal of infrastructure restrictions, especially in the area of ​​logistics," the expert summarized.Dmitry Rylko, Director-General, Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), characterized the current stage of the industry’s development as a period of strict government regulation aimed primarily at curbing inflation. "Today, the main priority in the Russian Federation is food affordability for the population. The government is prepared to take unprecedented measures: the introduction of Chinese poultry fillet to the Russian market and the liberalization of beef imports are the prime examples. All of this is being done to keep consumer prices under control," the expert stated. "It is worth noting that in 2025, wholesale food prices in Russia acted as a deflator against the backdrop of the strengthening of the rouble, which rose by 31% against the dollar. This strengthening led to diverse processes in foreign trade: food exports fell to approximately USD 41 billion, while imports, on the contrary, increased to USD 44 billion, surpassing the volume of agricultural exports for the first time in a long while."The expert also noted a structural anomaly in the 2025–2026 season. "The outstanding feature is that the south of Russia harvested significantly less grain than usual, and the share of this traditionally key region in export potential turned out to be the lowest in the entire history of observations. This circumstance has caused significant logistical changes: the average distance for grain transportation by rail has increased to 1800 kilometres," the head of IKAR detailed his thought. "We are witnessing a fundamental transformation of the logistics model: the focus is shifting from areas close to ports to remote regions, which requires a revision of the transportation policy and probably additional state support measures to maintain the competitive ability of Russian grain in foreign markets," the analyst concluded.Vladimir Petrichenko, Director of ProZerno, presented a detailed analysis of the current situation in the Russian grain market, outlining a number of concerning trends. "With the total grain production standing at 138.8 million tonnes in 2025, the crop area decreased by more than 5% in the 2025–2026 season. Domestic grain consumption remains stagnant at 85.4 million tonnes," the expert highlighted. "Under this scenario, the export potential could reach approximately 55 million tonnes, but the main threat is about carryover stocks, which will reach 18–20 million tonnes. These additional millions of tonnes create the risk of a significant price depression for all grains, exerting pressure on the market and reducing profitability for producers."Analysing the dynamics of Russian grain exports, Vladimir Petrichenko noted a considerable delay of 13% compared to the previous season’s schedule. "We are currently significantly lagging behind in terms of deliveries to key buyers, and many of them have already met their needs by purchasing grain from other countries. And they have plenty of choice: the global balance shows a high level of overproduction."Summing up the discussion, the participants unanimously acknowledged that the Russian agricultural sector has entered a stage of restructuring due to the combination of macroeconomic and regulatory challenges. Current harvest forecasts dictate the need to concentrate export efforts on the most reliable and solvent destinations, where stable logistics links have been established and there is predictable demand. It was emphasized that the accumulated stocks of grain and processed products not only completely meet the needs of the domestic market but also make it possible to fully fulfil export obligations. The industry’s future development trajectory will depend on the effectiveness of the government and business interaction in the areas of lending, logistics, and sales. However, it is quite clear that the fundamental foundations of the food security of Russia are ensured for the long term.BACKGROUNDThe Winter Grain Conference is one of the largest annual agricultural fora in Siberia that plays an important role in the development of the region’s grain industry. This professional discussion platform was created to formulate adaptive development strategies and facilitate effective management decision-making by key enterprises of the Russian grain industry. The forum brings together leading experts, representatives of federal and regional government bodies, and heads of agricultural holdings and industry associations, allowing it to remain an established competence centre for the matters of grain production, processing, and marketing.https://www.fao.org/russian-federation/news/news-detail/fao-presents-key-trends-in-global-grain-production-and-trade-in-altai-krai-(russia-s-breadbasket/en Mon, 2 Mar 2026 13:08:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3962/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3962/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, March 2 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose slightly last week, with the market still assessing the impact of strikes on Iran, analysts said on Monday. MOSCOW, March 2 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose slightly last week, with the market still assessing the impact of strikes on Iran, analysts said on Monday.Analysts lowered their export estimates for February, but expect an increase in March.The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in April was $233.5 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $0.5 from a week earlier, Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said.The situation with FOB prices at the beginning of the week, following the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, is not yet entirely clear, he noted."Exchange prices have skyrocketed. But we have a number of factors that counteract the rise in FOB prices," he said.Prices may be affected by the situation with purchases by importers from the Persian Gulf countries and neighbouring countries as well as by dynamics of insurance premiums."In other words, it is not necessarily the case that the rise in exchange prices will result in an increase in FOB prices."Russian FOB was supported last week by slow selling and a strong rouble last week, the head of Sovecon agency Andrey Sizov said.Sovecon estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein at $233 to $236 a ton FOB, compared with $232 to $236 the previous week. The agency lowered its estimate for wheat exports in February by 0.3 million ton to 3 million tons.On Wednesday Sovecon trimmed its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.3 million ton to 45.4 million tons.IKAR lowered its estimate for February wheat exports to 2.7-2.8 million tons from 3.1-3.2 million tons a week earlier. Exports in March are estimated at around 3.5 million tons.Rail carrier Rusagrotrans said 2.4 million tons of wheat have been shipped for export from February 1 to 24. It estimates exports for February at 3 million tons due to difficult weather conditions in ports and for March at up to 3.5 million tons.Analysts said that weather conditions for the new harvest are favourable.Russia's statistics agency Rosstat released the final figures for the 2025 harvest on February 27 with 141.2 million tons of grain and legumes harvested, including 91 million tons of wheat. Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:Product:Most recent data:Change from a week earlier- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)13,750 rbls/t+175 rbls/t- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)36,150 rbls/t0 rbls/t- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)94,425 rbls/t0 rbls/t- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)28,900 rbls/t+400 rbls/t- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)$1,290$0/t- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)$687.24/t-$4.3/t Mon, 2 Mar 2026 11:11:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3958/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3958/ Agribusiness Importers turn to non-Russian Black Sea ports because of freight advantage Importers turn to non-Russian Black Sea ports because of freight advantageRussian wheat prices hold as storms snarl Black Sea shipmentsLimited shipments and a strong rouble supported Russian wheat export prices last week, which approached those of Black Sea competitors, analysts said.The price of Russian wheat with 12.5 per cent protein content for free-on-board delivery at the end of March was $233 a tonne at the end of last week, unchanged from a week earlier, Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said.Weather problems that have affected the new harvest in France and the US may provide further support for prices, he said.Stormy weather and ice prevent shipmentsThe situation with shipments from Russian ports remains difficult, Rylko said, as stormy weather continues in the Black Sea, and ice prevents ships from passing through the Caspian and Baltic seas. In the Sea of Azov, however, he said convoys of ships have begun to pass through even though it is covered with ice.High Russian prices mean some importers have been buying grain shipped to Constanta, in Romania, and Varna and Burgas in Bulgaria, rather than from Russian ports, due to a freight advantage, the Sovecon agency said in a weekly note.It estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5 per cent protein at $232-$236 a tonne FOB, compared with $231-$235 at the end of the previous week.Its estimate for February wheat exports is 3.3 million tonnes. IKAR has forecast wheat exports at 3.1-3.2 million tonnes for the month, while rail carrier Rusagrotrans said nearly 1.8 million tonnes of wheat have been shipped for export from February 1 to 16.Russia's southern regions are preparing for the spring sowing campaign, which is scheduled to start in March. "No significant weather threats are expected in the coming week. Ice crust on some fields, in our view, does not pose a serious risk at this stage. It should gradually melt as temperatures rise", Sovecon said.Sovecon raised its 2026 Russian wheat harvest forecast by 2.1 million tonnes to 85.9 million tonnes last week. Fri, 27 Feb 2026 17:22:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3961/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3961/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Limited shipments and a strong rouble supported Russian wheat export prices last week, which approached those of Black Sea competitors, analysts said. MOSCOW, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Limited shipments and a strong rouble supported Russian wheat export prices last week, which approached those of Black Sea competitors, analysts said.The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery at the end of March was $233 a metric ton at the end of last week, unchanged from a week earlier, Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said.Weather problems that have affected the new harvest in France and the U.S. may provide further support for prices, he said.STORMY WEATHER AND ICE PREVENT SHIPMENTSThe situation with shipments from Russian ports remains difficult, Rylko said, as stormy weather continues in the Black Sea, and ice prevents ships from passing through the Caspian and Baltic seas.In the Sea of Azov, however, he said convoys of ships have begun to pass through even though it is covered with ice.High Russian prices mean some importers have been buying grain shipped to Constanta, in Romania, and Varna and Burgas in Bulgaria, rather than from Russian ports, due to a freight advantage, the Sovecon agency said in a weekly note.It estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein at $232-$236 a ton FOB, compared with $231-$235 at the end of the previous week. Its estimate for February wheat exports is 3.3 million tons.IKAR has forecast wheat exports at 3.1-3.2 million tons for the month, while rail carrier Rusagrotrans said nearly 1.8 million tons of wheat have been shipped for export from February 1 to 16.Russia's southern regions are preparing for the spring sowing campaign, which is scheduled to start in March."No significant weather threats are expected in the coming week. Ice crust on some fields, in our view, does not pose a serious risk at this stage. It should gradually melt as temperatures rise", Sovecon said.Sovecon raised its 2026 Russian wheat harvest forecast by 2.1 million metric tons to 85.9 million tons last week. Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:Product:Most recent data:Change from a week earlier- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)13,575 rbls/t+50 rbls/t- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)36,150 rbls/t-450rbls/t- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)94,425 rbls/t-175 rbls/t- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)28,500 rbls/t-900 rbls/t- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)$1,290-$16/t- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)$691.54/t+$4.92/t Tue, 24 Feb 2026 11:08:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3959/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3959/ Agribusiness Corn is mostly a penny to 2 cents lower at midmorning. Corn is mostly a penny to 2 cents lower at midmorning.Pro Farmer’s Market Snapshot(Pro Farmer)Corn futures are weaker as technical headwinds continue to limit buyer interest.A European Union assessment found that President Trump’s new tariff policy will increase levies on some of the EU’s exports, including cheese and some agricultural products, above the level permitted in their trade agreement, Bloomberg reported.Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025-26 Brazilian corn production estimate 1 MMT to 135 MMT, indicating a neutral to lower bias as safrinha planting efforts remain slow overall. "With a notable amount planted later than desired, the risk of lower yields has increased," according to Cordonnier. He left his Argentine corn production estimate unchanged at 53 MMT, but holds a neutral to lower bias.The first vessel of Brazilian DDG’s destined for China left the Brazilian port of Imbituba, Santa Catarina last week, loaded with 62,000 tons of DDG’s.May corn futures are trading within Monday’s lower range, with support at the 20-day moving average of $4.37 ¾, while resistance remains at the 100- and 200-day moving averages, layered from $4.45 3/4 and $4.48 1/2.Soybeans are mostly 3 to 6 cents higher. Soymeal is around $2.10 higher. Soyoil is around 50 points higher.Soybean futures are firmer in a unified tone, with support from both meal and soyoil.Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 1 MMT to 178 MMT, as excessive rains affect central Brazil and lacking rain in parts of Rio Grande do Sul remain. He maintained his Argentine soybean estimate of 47 MMT, but holds a neutral to lower bias after many areas faced damage caused by high winds and hail.European Union soybean imports for the 2025-26 season, which began in July reached 8.11 MMT by February 22, down 11% from the same period a year earlier, according to data published by the European Commission earlier today.May soybeans continue to find support at the 10-day moving average of $11.49, which is backed by the 20-day moving average. Resistance stands at Monday’s high of $11.65.Wheat futures are unchanged to 4 cents lower at midmorning.SRW wheat futures are extending Monday’s corrective selling after reaching a fresh multi-month high.Record low temps across most of Ukraine in February led to deep soil freezing, which could delay the start of the grain sowing campaign, according to the head of the agricultural department of the state meteorological center on Monday.Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consultancy has noted the situation with shipments from Russian ports remain difficult, as stormy weather continues in the Black Sea, with ice preventing ships from passing through the Caspian and Baltic Seas.May SRW futures are facing resistance at Monday’s high of $5.83 1/2, while support at $5.70 is backed by the 200- and 10-day moving averages, trading at $5.61 and $5.58.Live cattle are modestly firmer, while feeders are posting heavier gains at midmorning.Nearby futures are posting modest gains, following a two-day selloff, as technical resistance brings pause among buyers.Cash cattle trade averaged $246.91 last week, up $1.29 from the previous week.Wholesale beef values rose on Monday, with Choice up $2.52 to $369.22, while Select rose $3.57 to $364.31, though movement was light at 75 loads, indicating weakening demand as packer margins continue to suffer.April live cattle futures are trading within Monday’s lower range, bound by resistance at the 20- and 10-day moving averages, trading at $239.67 and $240.93. Initial support lies at the 40-day moving average of $237.40.Hog futures are notably firmer at midsession.Lean hog futures gapped higher at the open and are posting solid gains with support from improving cash and wholesale fundamentals.The CME lean hog index is up 22 cents to $88.17 as of Feb. 20.The pork cutout value rose $1.79 on Monday to $97.40 amid gains in all cuts aside from primal ribs. Movement totaled 239.0 loads.April lean hogs are facing resistance at the 20-day moving average, trading at $95.10, while initial support lies at the 40- and 10-day moving averages, layered at $93.80 and $93.32.https://profarmer.com/pro-farmer-max/market-snapshot/market-snapshot-soybeans-consolidate-around-recent-highs Tue, 24 Feb 2026 9:13:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3954/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3954/ Agribusiness Will this help curb price increases and why is this business interesting for retail Will this help curb price increases and why is this business interesting for retailPhoto: RIA Novosti/Vitaly TimkivRetailers are increasingly interested in growing cucumbers and tomatoes: a new major player may soon appear on the market, Izvestia found out. Lenta can invest in the development of greenhouses, previously the Magnit retail chain was actively invested in this segment. The interest of retail companies in this business is related to its marginality and sustainability. The emergence of a new player can affect the price situation of vegetables and help to contain the cost increase. From the end of December to the beginning of February, according to Rosstat, the retail price of cucumbers increased almost 1.5 times. Why the greenhouse business is becoming attractive to large retailers is in the Izvestia article.Why do merchants go to greenhousesThe Lenta Group (part of Alexey Mordashov's Severgroup) plans to start a greenhouse business, three sources familiar with its plans told Izvestia. She was interested in acquiring existing industrial greenhouses, one of them said. The interlocutors did not specify how much money the retailer intends to spend on the development of this business and which objects are of interest to it. Representatives of both groups declined to comment to Izvestia.Photo: Global Look Press/Sergey ElaginThe main crops grown indoors are tomatoes and cucumbers, said Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (ICAR). According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture, farmers harvested 1.6 million tons of greenhouse vegetables in 2025, his representative told Izvestia. This corresponds to the level of 2024, he said.Entering the market of a non-core investor will reduce the cost of production of tomatoes and cucumbers by 10-15% due to the introduction of Severgroup management and technological solutions from the industry, believes a top manager of a large agricultural holding. This practice, in his opinion, will help to stabilize the pricing of these crops.Photo: IZVESTIA/Eduard KornienkoAccording to Rosstat, from the end of December to February 2, the cost of cucumbers increased by 43%, and in the week from February 3 to February 9 — by 5.2%. Tomatoes have risen in price by 22% over the same period. One of the reasons for the cost increase could be high demand, Georgy Ostapkovich, research director of the HSE Center for Market Research, told Izvestia earlier. Against the background of rising prices, the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) appealed to the largest producers of protected soil vegetables with a request to explain the pricing of cucumbers, Izvestia wrote.Lenta became the second major retailer to show interest in the greenhouse business. Currently, only Magnit has its own greenhouse complexes among federal retail chains — they are located in the Krasnodar Territory and the Belgorod Region. Since 2018, the company has invested at least 13 billion rubles in the development of greenhouses in the Krasnodar Territory, they reported. By the end of 2025, the retailer's greenhouse vegetable harvest exceeded 60 thousand tons, which is only slightly higher than the level of 2024, a representative of the chain said. Izvestia also sent a request to X5 Group (Pyaterochka and Perekrestok networks).Photo: RIA Novosti/Konstantin MikhalchevskyRussian retailers are expanding their business in vegetable production amid stable consumer demand, Vyacheslav Berdnikov, head of Sovcombank's public equity analysis department, told Izvestia. The fruit and vegetable category for retailers is one of the key drivers of traffic, the expert noted. According to him, in-house production allows companies to solve three main tasks: to guarantee the stability of supplies, control the quality and cost of products, and develop a line of their own brand (STM) in the fresh segment.Difficult greenhouse growth conditionsThis market has good margins and stability, Dmitry Rylko noted. The EBITDA margin (reflecting earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation) of efficient greenhouse complexes can reach 20-25%, Vyacheslav Berdnikov added.Photo: RIA Novosti/Vitaly TimkivAt the same time, the greenhouse business has serious operational risks.: It requires deep agronomic expertise, which cannot be replaced by steel or retail, said Ilya Bereznyuk, Managing Partner of Agro and Food Communications. The main investments go into engineering systems, glazing and automation, Vyacheslav Berdnikov listed. According to him, the payback period for the construction of greenhouse facilities from scratch with the current margin is 8-10 years. This makes the purchase of ready-made assets (M&A) more financially attractive, because it reduces the payback period to 5-6 years due to a discount on acquisition, he noted. At the same time, the purchase of existing greenhouses avoids a multi-year investment cycle, Ilya Bereznyuk agrees.The average cost of building 1 hectare of an industrial greenhouse complex with basic microclimate systems in Russia in 2025 cost an investor an average of 100-150 million rubles, he estimated. The capital cost of creating fourth-generation greenhouses is estimated at about 120 million rubles per hectare, Vyacheslav Berdnikov noted. At the same time, according to him, difficulties remain with the supply of high—tech equipment - climate control and lighting systems, previously imported from the Netherlands and Belgium. As a result, the actual cost of implementing such projects may be significantly higher, Ilya Bereznyuk added.Photo: IZVESTIA/Yulia MayorovaAt the beginning of February 2026, there are more than 340 greenhouses in the country with a total area of about 3.3 thousand hectares in 76 regions, a representative of the Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia. By 2028, the industry's land bank may grow by 9%, to 3.6 thousand hectares, ICAR predicts. A number of support measures contribute to the growth, said a representative of the ministry. According to him, in 2025, the coefficient for calculating subsidies to reimburse part of the cost of producing vegetables from protected soil was increased. The authorities have also provided an additional boost factor during the peak price of vegetables, the source said.By the end of 2025, sales of vegetables in stores increased by 12.1% year-on—year in money, and by 41.2% in the online segment, according to data from the Nielsen analytical company. The absolute values were not disclosed there. In physical terms, the growth of the category of these products in 2026 will be 1-3%, predicts Ilya Bereznyuk.https://iz.ru/en/node/2044452 Wed, 18 Feb 2026 10:57:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3960/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3960/ Agribusiness Las condiciones meteorológicas limitaron significativamente los envíos desde los puertos del sur de Rusia en enero Las condiciones meteorológicas limitaron significativamente los envíos desde los puertos del sur de Rusia en eneroPrecio de exportación del trigo ruso sube por las dificultades de transporteLos precios de exportación del trigo ruso subieron la semana pasada debido a que las condiciones meteorológicas siguieron dificultando los envíos desde los puertos del sur del país, según los analistas.El precio del trigo ruso con un contenido proteico del 12,5% para entrega franco a bordo (FOB) en la segunda quincena de marzo era de US$233,0 por tonelada métrica al final de la semana pasada, lo que supone un aumento de US$2 respecto a la semana anterior, según Dmitry Rylko, director de la consultora IKAR.Las condiciones meteorológicas limitaron significativamente los envíos desde los puertos del sur de Rusia en enero. En febrero, las difíciles condiciones meteorológicas continúan: las tormentas están obstaculizando los envíos en el mar Negro, mientras que las condiciones del hielo están afectando a los envíos en el mar de Azov, donde las aguas son poco profundas.Sovecon estimó el precio del mismo tipo de trigo ruso entre US$231 y US$235 por tonelada FOB, frente a los 230-233 dólares de finales de la semana anterior. Mon, 16 Feb 2026 14:04:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3957/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3957/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose last week as weather conditions continued to seriously hamper shipments from the country's southern ports, analysts said. MOSCOW, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose last week as weather conditions continued to seriously hamper shipments from the country's southern ports, analysts said.The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of March was $233.0 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $2 compared to the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.Weather conditions significantly limited shipments from Russia's southern ports in January. In February, difficult weather conditions continue: storms are hampering shipments in the Black Sea, while ice conditions are affecting shipments in the Sea of Azov, where the water is shallow.Sovecon estimated the price for the same type of Russian wheat at $231-$235 a ton FOB, compared with $230-$233 at the end of the previous week.The agency raised its estimate for February wheat exports by 0.2 million tons to 3.3 million tons. Rail carrier Rusagrotrans increased its own estimate by 0.125 million tons to 3.4 million tons last week. IKAR estimated February wheat exports at 3.1-3.2 million tons.Russia's 20 million ton grain export quota took effect on February 15. It will remain in effect until the end of the 2025/26 marketing season on June 30.New-crop wheat conditions look favourable overall, Sovecon noted.On Friday, IKAR announced an increase in its estimate for the 2026 wheat harvest to 91 million tons from 88 million tons, with export potential in the 2026/27 season at 47.5 million tons. Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:Product:Most recent data:Change from a week earlier- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)13,525 rbls/t-50 rbls/t- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)36,600 rbls/t+225 rbls/t- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)94,600 rbls/t0 rbls/t- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)29,400 rbls/t0 rbls/t- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)$1,306-$4/t- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)$686.62/t-$3.13/t Mon, 16 Feb 2026 11:12:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3953/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3953/ Agribusiness Dmitri Rylko, Director of Moscow-based IKAR, told TUSAF delegates in Antalya that a surging ruble, rising logistics costs and an unusual quality mix are slowing Russia’s wheat export pace—so far reaching only 62% of its export potential. He said Russia’s ... Dmitri Rylko, Director of Moscow-based IKAR, told TUSAF delegates in Antalya that a surging ruble, rising logistics costs and an unusual quality mix are slowing Russia’s wheat export pace—so far reaching only 62% of its export potential. He said Russia’s wheat exports are increasingly concentrated along a "Russian wheat cross" that accounts for 75% of shipments, while Russia’s wheat flour exports fell by half in 2025 after a 1.2 mln t record in 2024.Strong ruble and Black Sea bottlenecks curb Russia’s wheat export paceRussia’s wheat export program is running well below last season’s pace despite ample supply, as a stronger ruble, weather-related disruptions in Black Sea loading and an unusually tight "blending" availability of lower-protein wheat weigh on competitiveness, Dmitri Rylko, director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), said at the TUSAF 20th International Congress and Exhibition.Presenting at the "The Search for a New Balance in Global Grain Markets" session, Rylko said the ruble has outperformed "all global currencies," while domestic prices for most agricultural commodities in February 2026 were lower than a year earlier—an uncomfortable combination for an export-oriented sector that ships more than USD 40 billion in agri-food products annually.ONLY 62% OF WHEAT EXPORT POTENTIAL REALIZED SO FARRylko said Russia is producing around 91 million tonnes of wheat (including Crimea) with an export potential of roughly 46 million tonnes, yet exports this season are "lagging" and have reached only 62% of potential, one of the lowest such ratios on record. He added that total grain exports are also running below the previous three seasons.EXPORTS NARROW TO A ‘RUSSIAN WHEAT CROSS’Rylko said Russia’s export footprint has narrowed, with shipments concentrated in what he described as a "Russian wheat cross" stretching from Morocco to Iran, and from Turkey across eastern Africa down to South Africa. This season, that corridor accounts for 75% of Russia’s wheat exports—an unusually high concentration, he said. Turkey remains Russia’s key buyer and is currently the No. 2 destination for Russian wheat, Rylko said, but volumes are far from record levels.LOW-PROTEIN WHEAT ‘MISSING’ IN THE SOUTHRylko highlighted an unusual quality profile: he estimated that 90% of Russia’s export flows shipped via the Azov region and new Baltic logistics capacity are 12.5% protein wheat or higher. Exporters are increasingly concerned they may have to sell 13.5%+ wheat as 12.5% because there is no lower-protein wheat needed for blending available in sufficient volumes. He said wheat at 11.5% protein and below is essentially absent in southern Russia, or priced so high that it is immediately absorbed by domestic feed mills, leaving little affordable supply for exporters.RAIL HAUL TO NOVOROSSIYSK HITS 1,800 KM, MAY TOP 2,000 KMThe supply shift away from the traditional "gross south" is also raising logistics costs, Rylko said. For the first time, the south accounts for only 58% of total wheat export potential, meaning more grain must travel longer distances to reach export ports.He said IKAR estimates the weighted average rail distance of grain delivered to Novorossiysk has already reached 1,800 km as of January and could rise above 2,000 km later in the season—pushing up costs and potentially pressuring average export quality as shipments draw more heavily from the Volga, Siberia and Urals, where issues such as insect damage and low falling numbers are more common.Strong ruble and Black Sea bottlenecks curb Russia’s wheat export paceAZOV COASTERS TAKING A MONTH TO LOADRylko said January weather cut effective Black Sea loading capacity by about half, and February started poorly, with the Azov Sea showing 25 cm of ice. He also pointed to unspecified "logistical issues" that market participants would recognize.Freight conditions have deteriorated sharply, he said, with small coasters calling at Azov ports taking around one month on average to load—an unusually long turnaround that inflates freight rates.PRICE VIEW: ONE–TWO WEEKS OF SUPPORT, THEN BEARISH RISKSRylko said wheat prices could see modest near-term support for "one or two weeks" due to infrastructure constraints and adverse weather in Russian and Ukrainian ports. Beyond that, he warned of renewed downward pressure from ample unsold export capacity across the broader Black Sea and nearby region—including Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary—relative to last year.Russia’s export quota runs from Feb. 15 to June 13, but Rylko argued the quota is not the primary constraint this season. Instead, he said export potential may remain unrealized because of currency strength, logistics and quality constraints.Strong ruble and Black Sea bottlenecks curb Russia’s wheat export pace2026/27 EARLY OUTLOOKLooking ahead, Rylko said IKAR has revised its preliminary 2026/27 wheat production estimate up from 88 million tonnes to 91 million tonnes, with wheat export potential seen at around 47 million tonnes, higher than this season. He put total grain export potential at 63.5 million tonnes, while cautioning it is still too early for firm projections.RUSSIA’S FLOUR EXPORTS HALVE AFTER 2024 RECORDRylko also flagged "hidden but tectonic" change in Russia’s domestic flour milling industry, with major producers gradually shifting into functional flours and investing heavily in processing capacity. At the same time, Russia’s wheat flour exports have fallen sharply. Rylko said shipments hit a record 1.2 million tonnes in 2024, with industry ambitions to expand to 1.5–2.0 million tonnes, but exports halved in 2025. He attributed the decline to the stronger ruble and Russia’s wheat export duty, arguing that when the duty compresses processing economics, flour exports "languish" with little incentive to expand.Rylko said Turkey appears to have overtaken Egypt as a key competitor in regional flour trade, while Kazakhstan has overtaken Uzbekistan as a competitor but faces aggressive expansion by Uzbek exporters. He added that Kazakhstan has been exploring new taxation measures aimed at improving competitiveness by at least slowing exports, though the market impact remains to be seen.https://millermagazine.com/en/blog/strong-ruble-and-black-sea-bottlenecks-curb-russias-wheat-export-pace-6632 Mon, 16 Feb 2026 10:31:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3956/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3956/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Dmitry Rylko, the head of the IKAR consultancy, said on Friday he saw Russia's 2026 wheat crop at 91.0 million metric tons, up from an earlier forecast of 88 million metric tons. MOSCOW, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Dmitry Rylko, the head of the IKAR consultancy, said on Friday he saw Russia's 2026 wheat crop at 91.0 million metric tons, up from an earlier forecast of 88 million metric tons.He said he saw export potential for wheat in the 2026/27 season at 47.5 million metric tons.Russia's total grain crop in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 141.5 million metric tons, Rylko said, with an export potential of 63.5 million tons.IKAR's baseline estimate for wheat exports in the 2025/26 season, which began on July 1, 2025 and will end on June 30, 2026, stands at 46 million metric tons. That is compared with an export potential of 46.5 million tons.According to IKAR, 62% of the estimated wheat export potential for the 2025/26 season has already been exported. Fri, 13 Feb 2026 11:11:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3955/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3955/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Increased demand from importers and bad weather in ports supported export prices for Russian wheat last week, offsetting forecasts of a strong new harvest, analysts said. MOSCOW, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Increased demand from importers and bad weather in ports supported export prices for Russian wheat last week, offsetting forecasts of a strong new harvest, analysts said.The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in March was $231.0 a metric ton at the end of last week, the same as a week earlier, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.Sovecon estimated the price for the same type of Russian wheat at $230-$233 a ton FOB, compared with $229-$231 at the end of the previous week.IKAR's first estimate of exports in February is 3.0-3.3 million tons.The Sea of Azov's frozen condition and Black Sea storms continued to severely limit shipments, Rylko noted."Many regular buyers of Russian wheat have stepped up purchases in recent weeks ahead of Ramadan, which begins on February 17. Egypt has been actively booking Russian, Ukrainian and French wheat. In the second half of January, Saudi Arabia and Algeria held large tenders," Sovecon said in a weekly note.The situation in the Sea of Azov is negatively affecting supplies to Turkey, analysts noted.Expecting higher prices, farmers were also postponing sales, Sovecon said.It estimated February wheat exports at 3.1 million tons. Rail carrier Rusagrotrans estimated exports at about 3.3 million tons last week.The share of Russian crops in normal condition as of February 5 stood at 97% compared to 87% in the same period of 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Thursday."Overall, the winter crop setup has improved, with limited winterkill risk for now and ample snow cover that could support spring moisture", Sovecon said.The 2025 grain harvest was the third largest in history, Patrushev said, at 147 million tons, including 93 million tons of wheat. Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:Product:Most recent data:Change from a week earlier- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)13,575 rbls/t+150 rbls/t- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)36,375 rbls/t+300 rbls/t- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)94,600 rbls/t+250 rbls/t- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)29,400 rbls/t+300 rbls/t- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)$1,310+$5- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)$689.75/t-$3.4 Mon, 9 Feb 2026 11:07:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3951/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3951/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose for the second week in a row on persistent bad weather at Black Sea ports, which analysts say will continue to hold back shipments. MOSCOW, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose for the second week in a row on persistent bad weather at Black Sea ports, which analysts say will continue to hold back shipments.The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery at the beginning of March was $229.0 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $1.50 from a week earlier, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy."We see a gradual strengthening of FOB prices caused by very severe weather conditions in the Black Sea and a reduction in export shipments," Rylko said."The weather is breaking all records for January. More than half of the days this month will have bad weather, compared to a maximum of 8-9 days usually in January."IKAR projects January wheat exports at less than 3 million tons, as expected a week earlier."So far, it (the volume of January exports) is steadily heading towards 2.5 million tons," Rylko said.Sovecon estimated the price for the same type of Russian wheat at $228-$230 a ton FOB, compared with $226-$228 at the end of the previous week.The agency kept its forecast for January wheat exports at 3 million tons.Cold weather has continued in central Russia and the Volga region, but substantial snow cover is mitigating the potential negative impact of the cold weather on winter crops, Rylko said.He noted that the possible loss of snow cover in the south of the country next week and sprouting of vegetation is causing much greater concern.Sovecon said on December 22 that it could cut its forecast for Russia's 2026 wheat crop from 83.8 million tons if a cold spell across the country persists for a week or longer.Russia launched the first spot trading of wheat on an export basis last week in an effort to increase pricing transparency and introduce domestic benchmarks. Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:Product:Most recent data:Change from a week earlier- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)13,375 rbls/t-75 rbls/t- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)35,875 rbls/t0 rbls/t- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)93,425 rbls/t+75 rbls/t- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)29,000 rbls/t+200 rbls/t- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)$1,275/t-$5- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)$693.06/t+$21.98 Mon, 26 Jan 2026 11:24:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3945/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3945/ Agribusiness This will help increase its consumption and give a new impetus to the development of the industry. This will help increase its consumption and give a new impetus to the development of the industry.Photo: IZVESTIA/Anna SelinaThe business asked the authorities not to introduce fixed prices for dairy products, as well as to provide even more assistance for the construction of farms and to protect them from unequal competition with Belarusian producers. This was asked by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev by representatives of large Russian companies at the XVII Congress of the National Union of Milk Producers as part of the Third Forum of Dairy Industry Leaders. The authorities, in turn, suggested that producers actively reduce the cost of milk in order to be competitive in export markets, as well as increase the volume of consumption of the drink by the population. See the Izvestia article about what awaits the market and what goals are set for the development of the industry.Achieve food safety for milkThe year 2025 was a record year for Russia in terms of milk production: for the first time in almost 30 years, the figure reached 34.3 million tons. On January 21, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev began his address to the participants of the XVII Congress of the National Union of Milk Producers with such positive news. The event was held as part of the Third Forum of Dairy Industry Leaders. The session entitled "Open Dialogue with the Deputy Prime Minister" became the key event of the meeting, where strategic issues of industry development were discussed.— Increasing the volume of raw materials makes it possible to ensure the full utilization of processing enterprises. The positive dynamics of production remained in the main categories of dairy products. In particular, the production of powdered and drinkable milk has increased, and the production of butter, cheese and cottage cheese has increased," the Deputy Prime Minister said.He also noted that the Russian domestic market is provided with a wide range of dairy products, so the positive trend of growth in per capita milk consumption has continued. In addition, the volume of our own production allows us to strengthen trade relations with foreign partners. According to him, from 2019 to 2024, export revenue from the supply of Russian dairy products increased by 60%, last year it increased by another 13%, and in some items the increase reached almost 30%.At the same time, according to him, the dairy industry is still on its way to achieving the indicators of the Food Security Doctrine. According to the national development goals, by 2030 Russia should produce at least 38.5 million tons of raw milk annually.The second important topic that the Deputy Prime Minister drew attention to was the investment attractiveness of the dairy industry. According to him, the government provides large-scale financial support to ensure it. According to the preliminary results of 2025, its volume amounted to 77 billion rubles, which is twice as much as in 2020, when it was 38 billion rubles. In addition, a whole set of tools is provided, which adapts and develops depending on the current situation in the industry.— However, our common task is to work on reducing the cost of milk production. Otherwise, the industry will not be able to become competitive in the current conditions," the Deputy Prime Minister stressed.According to him, this goal can be achieved by increasing the robotization of processes in animal husbandry, which a number of companies are already successfully using, increasing their efficiency. In addition, businesses actively need to work to reduce resource losses and improve the quality of their feed supply. Also, according to him, it is important to strengthen the genetic potential of cattle.— In just a few years, we will have to increase the volume of raw milk by more than 4 million tons. It will not be possible to do this by simply formally increasing the number of livestock. First of all, we are talking about improving the efficiency of our animals," the Deputy Prime Minister stressed.Representatives of the dairy industry reacted to Dmitry Patrushev's speech with applause. And the head of Soyuzmolok, Artyom Belov, noted that business has been experiencing difficult times almost every year lately. Nevertheless, according to him, milk production and consumption in Russia are growing, while imports are declining. This is largely due to government support, he added.At the same time, 2025 was a turbulent year for the industry due to an increase in the key rate, which, according to him, influenced the increase in production costs. In addition, the business faced a decrease in demand for its products, which began to level off only by the end of last year.Producers asked Dmitry Patrushev about new benefits from the state, as well as whether the authorities would fix prices for dairy products and protect them from unequal competition with their Belarusian counterparts. The Deputy Prime Minister said that the dairy industry has already become one of the most subsidized by the state, state regulation of prices is possible, but it is extremely short-term, and the government generally avoids such interference in the market economy. As for protection from Belarusian manufacturers, a single market for goods and services has been formed within the framework of the Union State. At the same time, he supported the creation of a working group with the participation of Russian business, so that it would be represented in the work on developing supply volumes within the framework of the Union State.Oksana Lut, Head of the Ministry of Agriculture, continued the topic of achieving the goals of the food security doctrine at the congress. According to her, it is not easy to fulfill them, but it is realistic, but if the export of Russian products does not develop, manufacturers will have surpluses. At the same time, she noted that the difficulty of developing exports lies in the high cost of milk. In Russia, the price of raw milk is 41.7 rubles per 1 kg, while in neighboring Belarus it is 33.8 rubles per 1 kg.According to the Ministry of Agriculture, milk is also cheaper -raw materials cost 35.5 rubles/kg in China, 37.3 rubles/kg in Brazil, 36.6 rubles/kg in New Zealand and 39.6 rubles/kg in the USA. According to Oksana Lut, in order to enter the export market by 2030, Russia needs the price of milk to be no higher than 37 rubles per 1 kg. In order for our country to be successful in the milk market, there must be a reduction in production costs, the head of the Ministry of Agriculture stressed, noting the unwillingness of businesses to make quick decisions, including improving the efficiency of dairy production.How and why did the cost of milk increaseThe cost of finished dairy products in 2025 in Russia turned out to be on average 19.7% higher than a year earlier, an interlocutor at the National Union of Milk Producers (Soyuzmoloko) told Izvestia. At the same time, he noted that in some categories, primarily dairy—intensive ones, the rates were higher, while in others they were lower.The increase in production costs was also confirmed by the top manager of the agricultural holding. Now it is about 40 rubles per liter, added a second Izvestia source in a large agricultural enterprise. The largest share is occupied by feed costs, which doubled in annual terms, the top manager noted. Total operating costs (energy, vaccines, medical equipment, maintenance and purchase of equipment, loan servicing, etc.) have also increased almost 1.5 times, he said. The increase in loan servicing costs due to a decrease in subsidies also had an impact, the Soyuzmolok representative added. At the same time, by the end of 2025, prices for raw milk "sank somewhat," the top manager of a large agricultural holding drew attention.Throughout the year, raw milk was priced 25-30% higher than the previous year, and in the fall, an uncharacteristic decrease in purchase prices for it began for this period of the year, according to a review by the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (ICAR). This is due to the large stocks of finished dairy products, as well as the high base of 2024, when prices for raw milk increased by 32% year-on-year in December, they believe.According to Rosstat, the cost of milk and dairy products in 2025 increased by 14.7% compared to 2024.The increase in retail prices occurred in conditions of stable selling prices from producers, said a source of Izvestia in a large agricultural holding. In May – November 2025, the selling price of drinking milk ranged from 69 to 70 rubles (excluding VAT), according to the available editorial data of market participants. At the same time, its retail value increased from 119 rubles in May to 122 rubles (excluding VAT) in November, according to industry data. The adjustment of prices for dairy products is a consequence of an increase in the cost of milk production and processing, explained the representative of Soyuzmolok.Georgy Ostapkovich, Research Director of the HSE Center for Market Research, believes that meeting the government's requirements to reduce production costs and ultimately the final price of milk will depend on many factors. First of all, this will be influenced by the possibility of reducing costs, including logistics, housing and communal services, wages, etc. At the same time, the government's call for increased production efficiency is absolutely correct, taking into account the development of new technologies and the replacement of manual labor with automated production, he noted. If the business is interested in fulfilling these components, then reducing the cost of milk is quite possible, the expert concluded.https://iz.ru/en/node/2028724 Wed, 21 Jan 2026 11:13:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3947/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3947/ Agribusiness MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices rose last week on limited supply from the Black Sea region and increased demand from importers, analysts said as they lowered their estimates for January exports due to poor weather conditions at ports. MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices rose last week on limited supply from the Black Sea region and increased demand from importers, analysts said as they lowered their estimates for January exports due to poor weather conditions at ports.The price for Russian wheat with 12.5percent protein content for free-on-board delivery in the second half of February was USD227.50 a metric ton at the end of last week, up USD2.50 from January 13, according to Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.The price increase is due to a shortage of Black Sea wheat in particular, and bad weather at ports, Rylko added.Sovecon estimated the price for the same type of Russian wheat at USD226-USD228 a ton FOB, compared with USD225-USD227 at the end of the previous week."Black Sea values were slightly higher this week on recovering importer demand.Domestic Egyptian prices have risen recently, making Russian wheat more competitive.A strong rouble and limited post-holiday domestic supply also provided support", Sovecon wrote in a weekly note.Saudi Arabian state grains agency the General Food Security Authority said it had bought an estimated 907,000 metric tons of hard wheat in an international tender on Monday, confirming earlier reports from traders.Sovecon lowered its estimate for January wheat exports by 0.2 million tons to 3 million tons and IKAR by 0.5 million tons to 3 million tons.The wave of severe frost in Russia has not yet damaged crops thanks to significant snow cover, Sovecon analysts noted.However, if forecasts of a second wave of extremely low temperatures prove accurate, soil temperatures could fall to critical levels of minus 12 degrees to minus 15 degrees Celsius (10.4°Fahrenheit to 5°F) or lower.At such temperatures, winter crops may suffer from frost damage and winterkill, analysts say. Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Friday she expected Russia’s 2026 grain harvest to exceed last year’s crop. Tue, 20 Jan 2026 11:22:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3944/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3944/ Agribusiness Russia is ready to increase wheat exports to Mexico and is capable of quickly meeting local demand, Russian diplomats have stated, with Mexico currently experiencing a grain shortage due to a series of droughts. Russia is ready to increase wheat exports to Mexico and is capable of quickly meeting local demand, Russian diplomats have stated, with Mexico currently experiencing a grain shortage due to a series of droughts.There are stumbling blocks: Russian companies remain highly interested in the Mexican market, but the development of these trade relations is largely constrained by the United States, despite the currently tense relations between Washington and Mexico.The Russian Embassy in Mexico City stated that "Russian companies remain prepared to increase wheat export volumes and are capable of quickly meeting demand in the Mexican market if market conditions improve and economically feasible trade conditions emerge."By the end of 2024, Mexico’s purchases of Russian wheat exceeded 700,000 tons. The country maintains strong interest in this crop, and Russian grain is competitive in both quality and price. Mexico relies heavily on grain imports due to recurring droughts and adverse weather conditions, which limit domestic production. However, demand for wheat is growing as the population grows and the food industry develops.The country has a population of approximately 135 million, and this continues to grow, obliging the country to seek reliable external suppliers. According to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, wheat prices in Russia remain stable at the beginning of 2026 due to market oversupply, and this factor is decisive when choosing suppliers from Mexico. This gives Russia an advantage over fluctuating US prices.However, Russian wheat exports have recently declined. This crop will account for 82.5% of the main agricultural product shipments in 2025—27.9 million tons, compared to 32.5 million tons shipped last season, a 14% increase.Russia-Mexico Trade Relations: January 2026 UpdateIntense competition in the global market was cited as the main reason for the decline in wheat shipments. According to the Russian Grain Union, wheat was sold at minimal or no discount in the first half of the agricultural year. Under these conditions, realizing the full export potential is difficult. Developing trade cooperation, including with Mexico, could open up new opportunities.Overall, the two countries have great prospects for expanding cooperation. The Russian Embassy emphasized that Russian companies’ interest in the Mexican market remains high and covers a wide range of industries and areas of cooperation.The Embassy stated that "Priority areas include pharmaceuticals, information technology, energy, and agriculture, where Russian businesses see potential for mutually beneficial cooperation and are already actively developing potential projects."Russian exports include chemical fertilizers, metal products, grain, and rubber, while Mexico supplies Russia with coffee, pepper, pharmaceuticals, and food products.According to the embassy, ​​active work is currently underway with the Roscongress Foundation and the Russian Trade Mission to explore possible formats for further business cooperation. In particular, bilateral business missions are being considered.In April 2025, the first Russia-Mexico Business Forum was held in Mexico City. It featured over 150 direct negotiations with companies from the Republic.However, there are also significant challenges to bilateral cooperation. These include sanction restrictions, logistical difficulties, and existing import duties and tariffs, which in certain segments hinder the expansion and diversification of bilateral trade. The disconnection of Russian banks from the SWIFT system also creates problems for international settlements between Russian and Mexican companies.Effective January 1, 2026, the Mexican Parliament approved an increase in import duties on a number of goods from countries with which the country does not have free trade agreements, including Russia. The increase ranges from 10% to 50% and applies to textiles, cars, household appliances, motorcycles, soap, perfume, cosmetics, furniture, plastics, and auto parts.The Mexican government, whose economy is heavily dependent on foreign trade with the United States, justified its actions by citing the need to protect the economy and stimulate domestic production. Despite the fact that a significant portion of trade between the countries is exempt from import duties, the new restrictions significantly limit the prospects for increased cooperation.At the same time, according to Russian Ambassador to Mexico Nikolai Sofinsky, the country’s leadership, led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, fundamentally opposes restrictions against Moscow. He noted that Russia and Mexico enjoy traditionally friendly relations.Mexico City’s principled approach could negatively impact its trade relations with the United States. Local companies are forced to balance maintaining access to the American market, as Mexico City is one of the United States’ largest trading partners. According to the Census Bureau, trade between the two countries amounted to US$839.9 billion in 2024.The United States and Mexico are bound by the USMCA free trade agreement, within which most supply chains are built. However, it is difficult to imagine a significant expansion of trade relations between Russia and Mexico. According to Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography, trade turnover with Russia from January to September 2025 amounted to only US$988 million.Meanwhile, relations between Mexico and the United States are quite tense. According to The New York Times, the Trump administration is increasing pressure for permission to conduct operations to dismantle drug labs. Even before the invasion of Venezuela, the White House had raised the possibility of strikes on Mexican territory. There is a possibility that the US will strike a drug cartel camp in a remote area. However, this could provoke an asymmetric response from the same cartels and have negative consequences for the US economy. This, some analysts have stated, is precisely what worries those who say Mexico shouldn’t be "meddled with." But if relations between Mexico and the United States do deteriorate, Russian exporters may be able to take advantage of an opportunity.https://russiaspivottoasia.com/russia-mexico-trade-relations-january-2026-update/ Mon, 19 Jan 2026 11:09:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3950/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3950/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices started 2026 with a slight decline amid strong global supply, analysts said, as highlighted in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices started 2026 with a slight decline amid strong global supply, analysts said, as highlighted in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in February was $225 a metric ton at the start of this week, down $1 from December 27 before the New Year and Orthodox Christmas holidays, according to Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.Sovecon estimated the price for the same type of Russian wheat at $225-$227 a ton FOB, compared with $227-$229 per ton in late December."Russian FOB eased on muted demand as buyers anticipated stronger price pressure from Southern Hemisphere suppliers. Australia and Argentina have finished harvesting bumper crops", Sovecon said in a weekly report. EXPORTS AND FORECASTSSovecon assessed December wheat exports at 4.2 million tons and expects January shipments to reach 3.2 million tons. IKAR estimates December exports at 4.4 million tons and January at 3.5 million tons.IKAR on Tuesday raised Russia's 2025/26 wheat export potential to 46.5 million tons from a previous forecast of 44.1 million tons, factoring in state statistical agency Rosstat's December harvest data.In its January report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its Russian production forecast by 2 million tons to 89.5 million tons on higher preliminary yields reported by Rosstat.Heavy snowfall in January provided solid protective cover for winter wheat in most regions, except in the south where snow remains minimal, Sovecon said.Analysts warned that frosts expected this week in central Russia, reaching minus 20-27 degrees Celsius (minus 4 to minus 17 Fahrenheit), could damage crops if they persist for more than a week. An ice crust formed after recent warm weather may pose an even greater threat than low temperatures. Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:Product:Most recent data:Change from a week earlier- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)13,475 rbls/t0 rbls/t- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)36,300 rbls/t0 rbls/t- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)93,500 rbls/t0 rbls/t- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)29,250 rbls/t0 rbls/t- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR) (on 12 January)$668.54/t+$2.13 Tue, 13 Jan 2026 11:21:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3949/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3949/ Agribusiness MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Russia's IKAR consultancy raised the country’s grain export potential for the 2025/26 season to 60.2 million metric tons from 57.8 million tons, but warned the target may not be met due to a poor crop in the south. MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Russia's IKAR consultancy raised the country’s grain export potential for the 2025/26 season to 60.2 million metric tons from 57.8 million tons, but warned the target may not be met due to a poor crop in the south.IKAR increased its wheat export forecast to 46.5 million tons from 44.1 million. The current grain marketing season ends on June 30, 2026.Russia's southern breadbasket regions, which have easy access to Black Sea ports, have suffered bad weather for two years in a row. Their lower output has been offset by bumper harvests elsewhere.Central Russia and Siberia enjoyed better harvests in 2025, but their distance from main export terminals makes logistics costly and complex, IKAR said."We have doubts that this potential (for 2025/26) will be fully realized due to the peculiarity of this season, the lower share of the south in exports, which complicates logistics in an environment of low global prices," said IKAR head Dmitry Rylko.Russia's statistics agency said on December 26 the country harvested 139.4 million tons of grain in 2024/25, up 11% from a year earlier and above the government's updated forecast of 137 million tons.The government said such a harvest would allow Russia to maintain its exports in the current season. The country exported 53 million tons of grain last season, including 44 million tons of wheat. Russia is the biggest global exporter of wheat. Tue, 13 Jan 2026 11:20:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3946/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3946/ Agribusiness MOSCÚ, 13 ene (Reuters) - La consultora rusa IKAR elevó el potencial de exportación de grano del país para la temporada 2025/26 ​a 60,2 millones de toneladas métricas desde los 57,8 millones ‌de toneladas, pero advirtió que el objetivo podría no ... MOSCÚ, 13 ene (Reuters) - La consultora rusa IKAR elevó el potencial de exportación de grano del país para la temporada 2025/26 ​a 60,2 millones de toneladas métricas desde los 57,8 millones ‌de toneladas, pero advirtió que el objetivo podría no alcanzarse debido a una mala cosecha ‌en el sur.FOTO DE ARCHIVO: Segadoras cosechan trigo en un campo en el distrito de Kasharsky de la región de Rostov, Rusia. 24 de julio de 2025. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov/ArchivoIKAR aumentó su previsión de exportación de trigo de 44,1 millones de toneladas a 46,5 millones. La actual campaña de comercialización del cereal finaliza el 30 de junio de 2026.Las regiones del sur de Rusia, ⁠de fácil acceso a ‌los puertos del mar Negro, llevan dos años seguidos sufriendo las inclemencias del tiempo. Su menor producción se ha ‍visto compensada por cosechas abundantes en otros lugares.Rusia central y Siberia disfrutaron de mejores cosechas en 2025, pero su distancia de las principales terminales de exportación hace ​que la logística sea costosa y compleja, según IKAR."Tenemos dudas de ‌que este potencial (para 2025/26) se realice plenamente debido a la peculiaridad de esta temporada, la menor participación del sur en las exportaciones, lo que complica la logística en un entorno de bajos precios mundiales", dijo el jefe de IKAR, Dmitry Rylko.El 26 de diciembre, la agencia de estadística ⁠rusa anunció que el país cosechó 139,4 ​millones de toneladas de grano en 2024/25, ​un 11% más que un año antes y por encima de la previsión actualizada del Gobierno de 137 millones ‍de toneladas.El gobierno afirmó ⁠que tal cosecha permitiría a Rusia mantener sus exportaciones en la actual campaña. El país exportó 53 millones de toneladas de grano ⁠la pasada campaña, 44 millones de ellas de trigo. Rusia es el mayor exportador ‌mundial de trigo. Tue, 13 Jan 2026 11:17:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3948/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3948/ Agribusiness MOSCÚ, 29 dic (Reuters) - Los precios de exportación del trigo ruso bajaron levemente la semana pasada, ya que la demanda siguió siendo floja en el inicio de la temporada de vacaciones navideñas. MOSCÚ, 29 dic (Reuters) - Los precios de exportación del trigo ruso bajaron levemente la semana pasada, ya que la demanda siguió siendo floja en el inicio de la temporada de vacaciones navideñas.El precio del trigo ruso con un contenido proteínico del 12,5% para entrega franco a bordo (FOB) a principios de febrero era de 226 dólares la tonelada métrica a finales de la semana pasada, 1 dólar menos que la semana anterior, según Dmitry Rylko, director de la consultora IKAR.La consultora Sovecon estimó ⁠el precio del trigo ruso con un contenido proteínico del 12,5% entre 228 y 230 dólares la tonelada FOB, el mismo ⁠nivel que una semana antes.Sovecon también elevó su estimación de las exportaciones de trigo ⁠de diciembre en 0,3 millones de toneladas respecto de la semana pasada, hasta 4,2 millones de toneladas.IKAR mantuvo su estimación de exportaciones de trigo en diciembre en 4,5 millones de toneladas.AÚN NO HAY CAMBIOS EN LAS PREVISIONES A PESAR DEL FRÍOLa agencia estadística estatal Rosstat informó a finales de la semana pasada ⁠que, según datos preliminares, Rusia cosechó 139,4 millones de toneladas de grano en 2025, de las que 91,4 millones fueron de trigo.Según los datos de Rosstat al 1 de diciembre, los cultivos de invierno se sembraron en una superficie de 10,9 millones de ⁠hectáreas, un 2,8% menos que el año pasado.Las heladas invernales que azotaron la parte europea de Rusia la semana pasada, con temperaturas de hasta 20 grados Celsius bajo cero, no han obligado aún a los analistas a modificar sus previsiones para la cosecha de 2026.Sin embargo, es posible que reconsideren sus expectativas, según Rylko, de IKAR."El estado (de los cultivos) no es malo, pero yo no me relajaría", dijo, añadiendo que el sur de Rusia necesita precipitaciones y que la región del Volga está experimentando temperaturas significativamente bajas. Mon, 29 Dec 2025 12:43:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3942/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3942/ Agribusiness MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices have drifted slightly lower in a pre-holiday demand slowdown, analysts say. MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices have drifted slightly lower in a pre-holiday demand slowdown, analysts say.The price for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late January to early February was USD227 a metric ton at the end of last week, down USD1 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.The Sovecon consultancy estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein content at between USD228 and USD230 a ton FOB, the same level as a week earlier.Sovecon maintained its export assessment of December wheat exports at 3.9 million tons, against 3.4 million tons last December.IKAR believes that wheat exports in December could reach 4.5 million tons or more, given the more active shipments last week.Sovecon said on Thursday that it had raised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast by 0.2 million tons to 88.8 million tons. Russia is expected to harvest 137 million tons of grain in 2025, slightly more than the previous forecast of 135 million tons, including 90 million tons of wheat, government officials said last week.Data from the Ministry of Agriculture at the end of last week showed that the 2025 harvest has been completed in Russia on 97.5 percent of the sown area. Tue, 23 Dec 2025 19:10:00 +0300 http://ikar.ru/en/press/3940/ http://ikar.ru/en/press/3940/ Agribusiness A number of items from the food basket are getting cheaper, despite inflation A number of items from the food basket are getting cheaper, despite inflationPhoto: IZVESTIA/Dmitry KorotaevRetailers are delighting Russians with cheap butter and a part of the grocery basket before the New Year, departments are noting an increase in production, and the Ministry of Agriculture is optimistic. Experts are arguing: is this a temporary correction or potential difficulties for farmers with the risk of recession in 2026? Insiders and market observers admit that at the beginning of next year, the most likely scenario is a moderate stabilization or a slight decrease in butter prices within 3-5% of the current level. And what about the rest of the items in the grocery basket, see the Izvestia article.Oil downThe increase in production and oversupply reversed the dynamics of butter prices, lowering them below last year's levels for the first time in a year. The Rusprodsoyuz Association fixes an average retail price of 1,178.8 rubles per kg, which is 0.5% lower than December 2024. According to Dmitry Leonov, Deputy chairman of the association's board, the increase in raw milk production (+3.5% year-on-year) and the expansion of butter supply (+2.9% year-on-year) contribute to lower prices.— In January – October, the volume of butter production amounted to almost 285 thousand tons, which is 2.6% more than in the same period last year, — the press service of the Ministry of Agriculture reported. — Production growth contributes to maintaining a stable price situation in this segment. So, at present, the producer price for butter remains approximately at the level of last year. Retail oil prices have decreased by 0.7% over the past month, and by 1.1% year–on-year.Photo: IZVESTIA/Sergey LantyukhovIn addition, according to the FAS press service, in mid-December, the average mark—up in 10 federal retail chains for "first price" butter was 1.3%, and for the entire basket of socially important "first price" food products - 4.7%.Pressure on the chain: from farms to shelvesThe decline in prices is rapidly being transferred from wholesale to retail, where the margins on "first price" butter in federal chains amounted to only 1.3%.A drop in prices below last year's mark is an important psychological milestone and a signal for the market, says Vener Ilyasov, a representative of the food market and chairman of the Council of the Bashpotrebsoyuz.— The fundamental reasons are the growth of raw milk production and the expansion of the finished product supply. This allows us to hope for greater stability, although it is too early to talk about a stable trend," the expert points out.Photo: IZVESTIA/Eduard KornienkoIn turn, Chairman of the ACORT Presidium Stanislav Bogdanov notes that retail prices for butter have been decreasing continuously since mid-September. According to ACORT monitoring data, by mid—December, the minimum retail price for butter in retail chains decreased by 24% year-on-year to 748 rubles per kilogram. The purchase price has fallen by 12% over the year, to 755 rubles, which means that at the moment, retailers sell basic butter items at a negative margin.Processors suffer from high energy and logistics costs, while farmers risk demotivation due to pressure on milk purchase prices. Consumer cooperatives absorb the impact through long-term contracts. Rashat Shaimardanov, Chairman of the Board of Tatpotrebsoyuz, points out that the pressure on retail is beginning to be transmitted down the chain to the manufacturer."Our task is to use cooperative mechanisms to absorb this impact, ensuring stable sales to our farmers under long—term contracts and preventing their demotivation," Bogdanov emphasizes.Shortage of demand and import factorAccording to the consolidated data of analytical agencies, oil consumption decreased by 9% at the beginning of the year, citizens switched to alternatives, and tariff privileges opened imports from India and Iran to 25 thousand tons duty—free. Stocks in warehouses exceeded last year's levels by half, reinforcing the correction after the peak of the end of 2024.Photo: IZVESTIA/Eduard KornienkoThe decrease in butter prices is at odds with the overall food inflation of 11% in 10 months: vegetables have increased by 30%, but the "milk" is stabilizing.— The dynamics of butter prices at the end of 2025 is radically at odds with the general trend of food inflation. In the first ten months of 2025, food prices as a whole rose by more than 11%, while annual inflation reached 6.65% in November," said Vladimir Poklad, Director of the Management Consulting Department at the Business Profile Group.Experts see this not as deflation, but as a post-stress equalization."The decrease in butter prices at the end of 2025 below the level of last year is not a short—term promotional correction, but the result of a leveling off of market factors after a period of price tension," says Elena Tikhonova, Managing partner of FoodTech Consulting.Photo: IZVESTIA/Eduard KornienkoAccording to her, retail chains are faster transferring the reduction of purchase prices "to the shelf", using oil as a sensitive category to retain customer traffic. At the same time, processors find themselves in the most vulnerable position: the decrease in selling prices occurs against the background of still high cost of energy, packaging, logistics and credit resources. Under such conditions, the market is entering a phase of operational optimization: volume growth, reduction of SKUs (inventory accounting units), strengthening of promotional mechanics and the search for export or contract sales channels.Deflation in the basket: eggs, vegetables, cerealsAccording to the official market survey, eggs fell in price by 17.7–22%, potatoes — by 24-27%, tangerines — by 15-25%, sugar and cereals — by 3-5%, tomatoes — by 16%. Of the 25 basic products, 16 have fallen in price over the year.According to Stanislav Bogdanov, in addition to butter, rice (-41%), white cabbage (-38%), potatoes (-30%), butter (-24%), onions (-23%), salt (-23%), beets (-21%) have fallen in price in retail chains over the past 12 months., carrots (-21%), chicken eggs (-17%), granulated sugar (-14%), wheat flour (-13%), beef (-12%), noodles (-7%), lamb (-7%), millet (-1%), rye bread (-0.1%).Photo: IZVESTIA/Sergey LantyukhovThe main reason for the volatility in the market of marketable eggs is the discrepancy between the maximum volumes of supply and demand. As a result, during the active production season, poultry farmers often suffer losses and are forced to sell products at a minimum price, often below cost, Rusprodsoyuz notes.A good harvest and vegetable stocks, and meat growth are key drivers of availability for the New Year.Analysts at ECC InvestProekt LLC add that prices for other products, excluding seasonal fluctuations, are mostly rising, we saw the largest surge in prices in late 2024 and early 2025, followed by a slight decrease.— Egg prices in early December 2025 actually decreased by 22% compared to January 2025 and averaged 93 rubles. However, egg prices have a pronounced seasonality: they are usually cheaper in the summer months and more expensive from October to April. The peak price usually falls in December-January, less often in March-April. At the same time, for example, sour cream has shown an increase in prices during the year, and we do not expect a significant decrease," the experts of InvestProject said.Forecasts for 2026: stabilization with risksA number of analysts expect stagnation or decrease in oil prices in the range of 3-5%, without sudden jumps in the absence of shocks. Eggs will stabilize, potatoes and tangerines will grow by 10-40% due to seasonality, buckwheat — by 5-8%.Photo: IZVESTIA/Yulia MayorovaHigh inventories and weakened demand will support the trend, but inflation, logistics and household incomes will set the band.— At the beginning of the year, there is a high probability of a continuation of the trend towards lower prices in retail and stagnation of prices in wholesale against the background of high inventories, — predicts Dmitry Rylko, CEO of IKAR.Taking into account the analysis of historical data and current market trends, the forecast for the beginning of 2026 is inclined towards relative stability of butter prices. A sharp rise in price or a significant reduction in the price of the product is not expected, and price fluctuations are likely to remain within the seasonal norm, within ± 3-5% of the level of the end of 2025, analysts of the Cenosaurus service predict.Senior Researcher at the Center for Agri-Food Policy at the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEI) Denis Ternovsky of the Presidential Academy notes that today, on the contrary, the rise in butter prices is a global trend associated with an increase in the consumption of animal fats. According to him, the market is now trying to find a balance between the increased prices and the restrained demand.— Most likely, he will try to reach the "shelf" of relatively stable prices, as it was in 2017-2023, but it will already be higher. At the same time, price dynamics will largely depend on the dynamics of household incomes: with their stagnation, oil is one of the first candidates for reducing costs and, consequently, demand and real prices," said Ternovsky.https://en.iz.ru/en/2010921/dmitrii-alekseev/butter-melting-prices-number-products-have-fallen-two-year-low Mon, 22 Dec 2025 23:57:00 +0300